BoE & Fed speakers take centre stage ahead of Friday’s GDP data

By Hann-Ju Ho, Jeavon Lolay, Mark Miller, Corporate Markets

Amid economist in-fighting in the UK media over the timing of future fiscal tightening, Bank of England MPC members will impart their wisdom in a series of speeches next week, with the appearance of Governor King, as well as members Bean, Dale, Miles and Barker at a Treasury Select Committee hearing on Tuesday.

They will justify their decision to keep asset purchases unchanged at £200bn, while acknowledging that it was a finely-balanced decision for some.

Indeed, with unemployment rising again, at least on the claimant count measure, and retail sales plunging in January, some MPC members may yet vote for more QE in the future, but may have decided against this for ‘presentational’ reasons, given the sharp but likely temporary rise in inflation.

The data release calendar includes the second estimate of Q4 GDP, which is expected to be revised up to 0.2%q/q, still showing the economy barely emerging from recession.

The figures will also be interesting since they will contain the first expenditure breakdown, including consumer spending.

More forward-looking indicators include Gfk consumer confidence and the CBI’s Distributive Trades survey, providing an early snapshot of February retail activity.

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* All charts are sourced to Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets Economic Research, Bloomberg, IMF and Datastream

 


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